Used Goods: Mr Key's rating falls.

The UMR Research poll of 750 people shows the Prime Minister's favourability rating down by 9 per cent, to its lowest level in more than two years.

I expect this rating to fluctuate over the coming months, but with a generally more negative substance. His "honeymoon", as commentators are wont to say, is over, and he's into the hard yards phase, a dimension of politics for which he has no obvious experience. Moreover, as the sense that he may want to be off soon gather4s force, his colleagues will, I suggest, be less concerned about propping him up as they face the prospect of an election in three years in which national will be very unpopular. The discussions about the next National leader are already in train; they can only gather pace in coming months.