Haruspicy and the National Leadership

I love the idea of the "guess" in economic policy. Not a "best guess", or an "informed guess", but the outright lick-the-finger-and-stick-it-in-the-air take-a-punt guess.Mr Key has tried to salvage the Muddle Men approach adopted by Mr English, but in vain. The asset sales prognosis would be better served by the adoption of entrail-reading, if Mr English is to be believed. Of course, National does have detailed analyses, which they will not share for two reasons. One is commercial sensitivity; the other is that the analyses will paint a bleaker picture than the "guess", and the political fall-out would be all the greater.

Politically, the impact of "guesses" is to exacerbate a very difficult few weeks for National. Adding to this this morning, Mr Coleman waffled away on Morning Report. trying to explain why cuts in Defence funding make us better defended. In practice, all he showed is that state sector CEOs are trying to cut an ever-reduced cloth better, and have reached the end of their design skills. Defence cuts and "reorganisation" are cutting into bone, as my contacts in the NZDF suggest. And as I type, Mr English's insights into the impact of larger classes is being dissected critically on the radio.It's going to be a rough three years for National.